乜中國有咁勁? Australians fear war with China, says Lowy Institute survey

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Australians fear war with China, says Lowy Institute survey
By Ian McPhedran From: The Courier-Mail  May 31, 2010 9:57AM

ALMOST half of Australians believe that China will become a military threat to Australia within 20 years, prompting record support for the US alliance.

According to the 2010 Lowy Institute foreign policy poll, 46 per cent of people think China will be a threat, with 19 per cent of them rating the possibility as "very likely".
And 55 per cent of the 1001 people surveyed named China as the world's top economic power, compared with 32 per cent for the United States, The Courier-Mail reports.
The reality is that China is Australia's number one trading partner, but its economy rates number four, behind the EU, US and Japan.
While 73 per cent of people regard China's growth as good for Australia, 57 per cent said the Government had allowed too much investment from China, and 69 per cent said China's aim was to dominate Asia.
Of those surveyed, 55 per cent wanted Australia to join with other countries to limit China's influence.
While Australians saw America's economic power as waning, they were still strongly supportive (86 per cent) of the Anzus Treaty and a military alliance with Uncle Sam. That was up from 63 per cent just three years ago.
Lowy Poll Project director Fergus Hanson said the results showed people were positive about China's economic growth but fearful of its military aims.
"The two sides of the China relationship play in to the rising support for the US alliance that is evident in the poll," Mr Hanson said.
Climate change
The sixth poll from the Lowy think tank also showed that Australians remained committed to acting on greenhouse gases - but they don't want to have to pay too much and they don't want Australia to get ahead of the rest of the world.
Of those polled, 72 per cent wanted Australia to take action, but 66 per cent were against taking steps that had negative economic consequences for the nation.
Meanwhile, a majority of those surveyed (54 per cent) said Australia should not be involved in the Afghanistan campaign, up from 46 per cent in 2007.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's foreign policy priority of winning a seat on the UN Security Council didn't rate too highly with punters, and just 34 per cent said they thought it was important.
That placed it at number 11 on the list of 12 goals for Australia, just ahead of seeking to abolish the death penalty in the region.
Asylum seekers
The increasing number of asylum seekers to reach Australia's shores is also weighing on the minds of the public.

As the Opposition toughens its stance on border protection, vowing to return to the Pacific Solution if elected, the poll shows almost 80 per cent of people are concerned about boat arrivals.

Those who were "very concerned" jumped to more than half of the total.

The public gave the Rudd Government a bare pass on foreign policy - 5.5 out of 10.
With AAP

近一半的澳洲人认为中国在20年内将成为澳洲的军事威胁，从而使对与美国同盟的支持创下纪录。根据2010年Lowy学会的外交政策调查，46%的人认为中国将是一个威胁，其中19%认为中国“非常可能”是个威胁。

这项对1001人进行调查中有55%的人称中国为全球最大的经济强国，而只有32%的人选择了美国。现实情况是，中国虽是澳洲的第一大贸易伙伴，但其经济排名是世界第四，尚未能赶超欧盟，美国和日本。尽管有73%的人认为中国经济增长有利于澳洲，但57%的人表示政府已允许过多来自中国的投资，还有69%的人表示中国的目标是称霸亚洲。在这些受访者中有55%希望澳洲与其他国家一起限制中国的影响力。

虽然澳洲人认为美国的经济实力减弱，但他们仍然强烈支持（86%）澳新美条约和与美国的军事同盟。而这一比例在三年前为63%。Lowy民调项目主管汉森（Fergus Hanson）表示，研究结果显示人们对中国经济增长持正面态度，但害怕其军事目的。这两方面推动了对于美国同盟支持的增长。

不过，在全世界的国家中，澳洲人最爱的还是纽西兰。澳洲人不问缘由地，就是对邻国纽西兰怀有深厚的爱意！虽然澳人从前就很爱纽国，但现在他们更爱了。

这次调查还显示，澳洲人仍然愿意对温室气体采取行动，但不想付出太多，不愿澳洲成为世界的领头羊。72%受访者希望澳洲对气候变化采取行动，但66%反对采取会伤害澳洲经济发展的行动。在难民问题上，这次调查显示近80%的人对海上难民来澳洲表示关注。54%认为澳洲不应该掺和到阿富汗战事中。

而公众给陆克文政府外交政策的打分仅仅及格，10分的满分中只有5.5分。陆克文一心挤进联合国安理会的行为，仅有34%认为是重要的。进入安理会在澳人的12条“外交愿望清单”上仅排第11位，垫底的是“在区域废除死刑”。

这是由媒体的负面效应以及大部分澳洲人对中国的不了解造成的。纵观近代史，中国从未主动侵略过哪个国家或者表现出殖民哪个国家的愿望。自新中国成立以来的所有战争都发生在中国的边境线上（中印，中苏，中越，抗美援朝）目的也都是以保卫国土和主权不受侵犯为目的的。

其实澳洲人应该对他们的强大保护伞---美国，更要多加提防，美国人的外交策略从18世纪就确定了没有朋友只有利益，如果有一天澳洲和美国的利益存在巨大的分歧的话，不是澳洲被欺负就是澳洲被抛弃。

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